Confidence Among U.S. Business Executives Plummets to 27%, Recession Fears Loom Large

Washington, D.C. | June 9, 2025 – Confidence in the U.S. economy among senior business executives has hit a new low, with only 27% expressing a favorable outlook for the next 12 months, according to the latest AICPA & CIMA Economic Outlook Survey released this week.

The quarterly survey, which gauges sentiment from top financial leaders including CEOs, CFOs, and controllers, paints a grim picture of economic optimism. This figure marks a sharp decline from 47% in the first quarter and 67% at the end of 2024, signaling increasing concern across industries.

Recession Worries Dominate Outlook

The survey reveals that over half of respondents believe the U.S. economy is either already in a recession or will enter one before the end of the year. Notably, three out of four executives predict any potential recession will be moderate to severe in impact.

“Persistent inflation, high interest rates, and ongoing global uncertainty—especially around tariffs and trade—are weighing heavily on business leaders' confidence,” said Tom Hood, Executive Vice President of Business Engagement at AICPA.

Hiring Plans and Growth Expectations Slow

Hiring projections have also weakened, with just 14% of surveyed executives saying they plan to expand their workforce immediately, compared to 20% in the previous quarter. Many cited rising labor costs and policy unpredictability as reasons for caution.

Additionally, the outlook for company revenues and profits has deteriorated, with businesses scaling back on capital investments and strategic expansions.

Tariffs Add to Uncertainty

Concerns over international trade policies—especially proposed or reinstated tariffs—were a recurring theme. Business leaders warned that tariffs have led to higher costs, disrupted supply chains, and dented growth prospects.

"Tariffs are not just impacting goods—there’s a ripple effect that’s straining confidence across sectors, particularly manufacturing, retail, and tech," said Hood.

A Broader Sentiment Shift

The findings are consistent with other recent reports, including a Conference Board survey, which noted the steepest quarterly drop in CEO confidence in nearly 50 years. Prominent voices from Wall Street, including BlackRock’s Larry Fink, have echoed these concerns, warning that recession signals are hard to ignore.

Key Highlights:

Only 27% of executives have a positive outlook on the U.S. economy (down from 47% last quarter).

75% anticipate a moderate to severe recession within the next 12 months.

Hiring plans, capital spending, and profit expectations have all declined.

Tariff-related uncertainty is a major contributor to weakened confidence.

As the Federal Reserve weighs future interest rate decisions and election-year economic policies remain uncertain, all eyes are on whether business confidence can recover—or whether this is the beginning of a longer downturn.